THE Daily Telegraph’s Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including speed maps and suggested bets for Sydney Cup Day at Randwick.
RAIL: 2m entire course
TRACK: Heavy 8
Race 1: 2YO HCP (1100m) 11.25am
OVERVIEW: Hard to go past Debonairly and she clocked quicker time than the older horses when winning in a canter first-up at Newcastle. Should lead these and prove hard to beat. Siam looks the danger and he has form around Catchy last preparation. The last 100m is the query for Darhad, while The Mighty Fed had the race set up for him last time.
SPEED MAP: Debonairly leads with Darhad up there. Siam can park behind them.
DID YOU KNOW: Debonairly was attacked in the lead by Snitzkraft, who ran last, at her only defeat in Brisbane.
SUGGESTED BET: Debonairly to win.
MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note
Race 2: SCHWEPPERVESCENCE HANDICAP Benchmark 78 HCP (1200m) 12pm
OVERVIEW: I Thought So handles wet ground and he just got nutted on the line in the Gosford Guineas last start. His form prior bodes well for this. Gibraltar Girl is a potential stakes class filly but she didn’t get through the heavy track first-up and that’s the concern again. Tessera has been gelded but he has the 61kg to lump fresh and his trials have only been fair.
SPEED MAP: Not a great deal of speed. I Thought So can dictate with Twist Tops handy.
DID YOU KNOW: Tessera gets the blinkers on again (didn’t wear them in his recent trials) and has been gelded since last preparation.
SUGGESTED BET: I Thought So to win.
MARKET MOVERS: France $13-$8 ($200 @ $11, $250 @ $9.50, $300 @ $9)
Race 3: ATC HERITAGE CENTRE HANDICAP 78 HCP (1600m) 12.45pm
OVERVIEW: Looks a race in two between stablemates Sizzling Bullet and Black On Gold. Leaning slightly to Sizzling Bullet at the price only because he has form on soft and heavy ground where Black On Gold is a slight query on wet ground. Ubatuba didn’t go a yard on the heavy Randwick surface last start but may this time.
SPEED MAP: Oklahoma Girl could push forward and lead, while The Pinnacle should be handy. Speed looks only fair.
DID YOU KNOW: Sizzling Bullet and Black On Gold both defeated subsequent Group 1 placegetter Harper’s Choice last preparation.
SUGGESTED BET: Sizzling Bullet to win. Quinella- 1,2.
MARKET MOVERS: Black On Gold $7-$4.80 ($200 @ $7, $700 @ $6, $400 @ $6, $500 @ $5)
Race 4: SCHWEPPES RANDWICK ROYALE 78 HCP (2400m) 1.10pm
OVERVIEW: Richard Of Yorke brings good form lines from Victoria and this looks his race for the taking. Paragon was taken on two back at Warwick Farm and probably should have won. The 2400m trip on a wet track gives him a chance.
SPEED MAP: Paragon, Survived and Richard Of Yorke look the three on-pace runners. Speed should be even.
DID YOU KNOW: Richard Of Yorke has firmed from $4-$2.70 since Wednesday.
SUGGESTED BET: Richard Of Yorke to win.
MARKET MOVERS: Richard Of Yorke $4-$2.70 ($500 @ $4, $300 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.40,
$645 @ $3.20, $400 @ $3, $1,800 @ $2.90, $200 @ $2.70)
Race 5: TAB HIGHWAY HANDICAP (1400m) 1,45pm
OVERVIEW: I’m surprised Like A Shot isn’t favourite here. He went super in a Benchmark 67 last start at Warwick Farm and he has form around Highway winners Mercurial Lad and Super Star Bob prior to that. Tommy Berry replaces an apprentice and he should be hard to hold out late. Only Choice is a promising type but the knock is he is probably looking for longer now. Schedule was very good fresh but gives them a start again.
SPEED MAP: Alot Like Home, Za I’m Youthful and Zuzzudio go forward with Barbass and Spiral up there too. They should go quick.
DID YOU KNOW: Like A Shot (12.24s) posted the quickest last 200m split of the day at Warwick Farm on April 5.
SUGGESTED BET: Like A Shot to win.
MARKET MOVERS: Schedule $4-$3.80 ($1,000 @ $4)
Race 6: ATC MEMBERSHIP HANDICAP (1600m) 2.20pm
OVERVIEW: Broadside should lead this comfortably and he will be very hard to run down. He sat three-wide no cover fresh when sixth at Warwick Farm and this sets up well for him. Grand Dreamer looks the danger. He goes good second-up and the extra 200m suits him. My Psychiatrist gets the blinkers on and looks next best.
SPEED MAP: Broadside is the only leader and can control this. Speed looks moderate.
DID YOU KNOW: Grand Dreamer has firmed from $6-$4 this week.
SUGGESTED BET: Broadside to win.
MARKET MOVERS: Grand Dreamer $6-$4 ($1200 @ $6, $1000 @ $4.80, $1000 @ $4.40,
$800 @ $4.40, $315 @ $4, $300 @ $4).
Race 7: RANVET HANDICAP 90 (1000m) 2.55pm
OVERVIEW: Nieta looks a good thing providing there isn’t a mad leader or fence bias. Her trials have been super and she should just be winning. Super Maxi is the only danger if the track is favouring leaders. Sir Bacchus will run on late but 1000m is short of his best and he has to give Nieta weight.
SPEED MAP: Super Maxi and Highly Geared look the leaders. Nieta should be midfield. Speed looks genuine enough.
DID YOU KNOW: Nieta was trapped three-wide without cover throughout when second in the Listed Starlight Stakes prior to a break.
SUGGESTED BET: Make Nieta your main win bet of the day.
MARKET MOVERS: Nieta $2.30-$2.10 ($430 @ $2.30, $1000 @ $2.20, $500 @ $2.10)
8 (since Final Field).
Race 8: SYDNEY CUP (3200m) 3.35pm
OVERVIEW: Polarisation was actually first past the post in the original Sydney Cup (it was called off mid-race but a handful of runners completed the entire course) and he was strong late. He had heat in a fetlock last weekend but has been cleared to run. I’ll lean his way just over the stablemate Penglai Pavilion who was also fighting out the finish in the no-race. Hard to knock the favourite Big Duke, while Mister Impatience and Pentathlon could be the best roughies and they are real two milers.
SPEED MAP: Lasqueti Spirit should ensure this is a genuine two-mile test. Look for proven two-mile horses.
DID YOU KNOW: Chance To Dance split Polarisation and Penglai Pavilion and was second past the post in the original Sydney Cup. Annus Mirabilis was fourth.
SUGGESTED BET: Boxed trifecta- 1,6,9,10,13,14. $24 for 20 per cent.
MARKET MOVERS: Big Duke $3.30-$3 ($5000 @ $3.20).
Race 9: TAB.COM.AU 78 HANDICAP 78 (1400m) 4.15pm
OVERVIEW: Moss ‘N’ Dale is unbeaten second-up and he just needs a bit of luck from the wide draw early. Roaring To Win flashed home at Rosehill in stronger grade last start and he will get his chance late. Pianissimo won well first-up on a bog track and his second-up record is good. Supply And Demand looks next best but is under the odds.
SPEED MAP: Moss ‘N’ Dale tries to lead with Conarchie, Lazyaxl and Dreamforce kicking up. Supply And Demand won’t be far away. Speed looks genuine.
DID YOU KNOW: Moss ‘N’ Dale is yet to finish outside the top two in five runs on soft or heavy ground.
SUGGESTED BET: Moss ‘N’ Dale to win.
MARKET MOVERS: Moss N Dale $7-$4.80 ($4000 @ $7).
Race 10: #THERACES 76 HANDICAP (1400m) 4.55pm
OVERVIEW: Countess Marinov meets Gretna 1.5kg better at the weights and she will get a lovely run on speed and prove hard to get past. Anisha is the big improver and she is the bet in the race if they are making ground. Gretna also has claims but had the race run to suit last start.
SPEED MAP: Alliterate and Countess Marinov should take it up. Does Gretna push on again? Tempo looks only fair.
DID YOU KNOW: Anisha has run a close second at both of her starts at this track.
SUGGESTED BET: Countess Marinov to win if the track is favouring leaders or Anisha to win if they are running on.
MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note.
Originally published as Stable watch: Sydney Cup Day
SOURCE: newsnow sport