FRENCH Emotion looks a standout with the set weight/penalties conditions and gets Matt Stewart’s tick of approval at Caulfield on Saturday.
Matty believes French Emotion has a clear class edge and should be finding the line when it counts.
He suggests punters looking for a bit of value should stick with import Irish Optimism in the second.
French Emotion (Race 6, No. 1)
Irish Optimism (Race 2, No. 9)
Race 1: JRA Marathon Series Final (4000m) 12.15pm
Seriously, any of these grinders could whack home first here. Not sure tipping one with most alleged “upside’’ is gilt-edged formula in these marathons but SHAMPION (6) has only had 18 starts and seems a developing marathon runner. Suspect has been running well in slightly better races than most of these and claim will help over such a trip. LIKE A CAROUSEL (1) hasn’t won in ages but is the class runner and has been also running in better races. Suspect will be over the odds. BAYANOVA (3), SPUR ON GOLD (5), REFECTORY (2), PRIZE (4) next best in no specific order.
SUGGESTED BET: Yep, in the next race.
Race 2: Thomas North Handicap (1600m) 12.50pm
OPEN but suspect import IRISH OPTIMISM (9) will come on from his first run here, an OK 10th in a good race at Bendigo. Was only beaten 5 lengths and up in trip. Betting might be key. KAPSET (8) is a capable on-pacer getting fitter. This is pet trip. ELITE TIGER (1) is absolutely flying. Only slight weigh rise after Allen’s claim. Some chance PAY UP BRO (3) and UNBREAKABLE (2).
SUGGESTED BET: Each-way No 9.
Race 3: IRT Vobis Gold Mile (1600m) 1.25pm
You look up and down for dangers and end up at the same spot — BURNING FRONT (1). The set weights conditions make him a near certainty. He always runs the same. Last start he was diggerised on-pace but still had cheek to give a little kick before being swamped. Winner Observational then won Easter Cup. The only threat is MR INDIVIDUAL (6) simply on score of natural talent. If he gets his act together — on-pace — he can figure. MANAGERESS (11) is a good mare who will be strong late.
SUGGESTED BET: Exacta 1/6.
Race 4: TROA VOBIS Gold Heath (2000m) 2pm
LOOKS pretty clear-cut. RUTHVEN (9) is on the fringe of the better staying 3YOs, evidenced by his Alister Clarke and ATC Derby runs. Trained here, here for the big bonus prizemoney, nicely drawn. Does look the winner. TARQUIN (2) was stuck in traffic for most of the straight in the Easter Cup. Looked to be cruising before the turn. Chance. ADIRONDACK (1) is a good horsed this course and distance and gets Melham. Betting?
SUGGESTED BET: Exacta 9/2.
Race 5: Swear at Spendthrift Australia VOBIS Sires (1200m) 2.35pm
THE Bendigo race won by Speed Street recently is shaping as one of the most solid form/ratings races of recent months and should stamp itself here. JE SUIS TYCOON (10) was terrific there, flashing home to be beaten narrowly. Nice gate here, trained on track. PURE SCOT (11) was also solid there, swamped late by Je Suis Tycoon, who has drawn one inside the favourite here. SEIZED (3) and SAN QUAN (5) were also close-up that day. MANY REWARDS (7) had trialled well before OK debut effort and might be best from different formline. Has blinkers.
SUGGESTED BET: Maybe something each-way No 10.
Race 6: Ladbrokes VOBIS Gold Distaff (1400m) 3.15pm
Again, the set weight/penalties conditions play to the better horses and FRENCH EMOTION (1) has a clear class edge. One of few to make inroads on feather-weighted all the way winner last start. Great barrier, probable winner. WHISTLE BABY (2) is also classy (but not within 1kg of French Emotion) and has been racing well. This is per pet trip, racing well. TYKIATO (6) has a good second up record and gets Ollie.
SUGGESTED BET: Topweight one-out in quaddie.
Race 7: Thoroughbred Breeders Victoria Bel Esprit Stakes (1100m) 3.55pm
Very interesting race. Take out the bog Randwick flop (always forgivable) and FAATINAH (2) looks the one. Beaten by stablemate Sheidel previous start this track/distance, and they gapped the rest. Compelling. LEGLESS VEUVE (11) is interesting. Had excuses two starts after excellent 1200m win here in February, beating Hey Doc and Co. Nicely drawn, betting? PETITE FILOUS (10) seemed close to best form first-up at the Valley but niggle is that she has lost some of that X factor of last season. KAEPERNICK (3) will be running on, CRYSTAL DREAMER (6) has a bit of fitness and is promising. MAHUTA? Betting. ROCKET TOMMY? Promising but unders.
SUGGESTED BET: Maybe something each-way No 11.
Race 8: Newmarket Grand West VOBIS Gold Sprint (1200m) 4.35pm
Good race but keen on TYCOON TARA (8) and LUCKY LIBERTY (5). Put a line through Tycoon Tara’s Randwick flop. Top class mare, great record here. Lucky Liberty is reportedly flying and his track/distance stats are flawless. Next best PRUSSIAN VIXEN (11), WAZZANME (14) and KEN’S DREAM (13).
SUGGESTED BET: Take Nos 5 and 8 in quaddie.
Race 9: Goldners Horse Transport VOBIS Gold Reef (1600m) 5.10pm
WOULD have been super keen BUTCH KISSIDY (6) and THINK BABE (8) but their carpark alleys have opened race up for likes of KAZIO (7) and SWORD 0F LIGHT (12), who came through same Bendigo race before Sword Of Light won at Caulfield. Great formline and they’re drawn OK. The gate might not be fatal for Butch Kissidy, who swooped impressively at Pakenham before cluttered in traffic here last start. Think Babe likely to press forward, making it tricky from gate, but promising
SUGGESTED BET: Take Nos 6,7,8,12 in quaddie.
Originally published as The Early Oil: Caulfield
SOURCE: newsnow sport